March 10, 2012

Thoughts on the Feb. Employment Report

Yesterday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics release its employment report for Feb. 2012. The headline jobs number of +227,000 was hailed by many as more evidence that the U.S. labor market is healing, or even, "strong." In addition, the January number was revised upwards by 41,000 to 284,000 and the December number was revised upwards by 20,000 to 223,000.

Yet the unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.3%, breaking five months of improvement, as almost half a million workers joined (or more likely, rejoined) the labor force.

 

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My preferred measure of labor-market health, the employment-to-population ratio, edged upwards to 58.6% from 58.5%, which is encouraging, but remains stuck in a range it has not exceeded since August 2009. So don't break out the champaign just yet.

Moreover, the BLS numbers are at odds with another highly respected survey, one done by the Gallup organization. Gallup, which does not seasonally adjust, reported that the unemployment rate jumped from 8.3% in January to 9.0% in February. While much of this discrepancy may be due to seasonal factors, especially given the unseasonably warm February weather, it may be that the Gallup number has caught a trend that the preliminary BLS number has missed. We will have to wait another month to find out exactly what is really going on in the U.S. labor market.

January 31, 2012

Obama's Failed Housing Policies: Housing Prices Continue to Fall

Today, S&P released the Case-Shiller housing price indices for November 2011; the headline numbers were month-over-month decline of 0.7% and year-over-year decline of 3.7%. Here in Chicago, the news was much worse: down 3.4% month-over-month and down 5.9% year-over-year.

Housing prices are now back to mid-2003 values, meaning that anyone who has bought a house during the past nine years has lost money, and the vast majority are now “underwater,” owing more on their mortgage than their house is worth. We are now less than 1% away from the post-crisis low of 2009, and heading further downward.

There can be no more of a damning indictment of the Obama administration’s failed housing policies (HAMP, HARP, HAMP2, HARP2, etc. and now the proposed Robo-Signing Settlement); except, of course, for the 2.1 million homeowners currently in the process of foreclosure, the 1.8 million homeowners who are seriously delinquent on their mortgages, and the estimated 3 million former homeowners who have lost their houses to foreclosure since Jan. 2009.

The government came to the aid of the Wall Street bankers with the $700 billion TARP and the $7.7 trillion in Fed loans; is it really asking too much for the government to come to the aid of homeowners with a viable restructuring program that would stanch the economic hemorrhaging from foreclosures. This would require a program similar in magnitude to the TARP, but one that could be structured so that participating homeowners would pay back the government’s investment through shared future appreciation of their properties. Instead, the administration continues to look for yet more ways to funnel even more government aid to the Wall Street bankers, while Main Street borrowers struggle to hang on to their homes.

January 29, 2012

Why the Proposed Robo-Signing Settlement is a Bad Idea

On Jan. 23rd, HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan met in Chicago with several Democratic state Attorneys General in an attempt to strong-arm them into signing on to an Administration-backed agreement to settle the so-called “robo-signing” scandal.  The Wall Street banks would pay what sounds like a large fine ($25 billion), and, in exchange, the state AGs would relieve the bankers of all legal liabilities related to the fraudulent mortgage lending practices that directly led to the 2008 financial meltdown and a 30 percent drop in U.S. home prices.

Sadly, this is nothing more than another bail-out of the Wall Street banks, in addition to the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (“TARP”), the $7 trillion in loans to the banks from the Federal Reserve, and the Fed’s zero-interest rate policy, which has allowed banks to borrow from the Fed at zero while investing in U.S. Treasury bonds at four percent. The fraudulent practices of the mortgage servicers have injected an untold number of forged documents into the legal system, jeopardizing the clean titles to millions of homes around the country. The costs of cleaning up this legal mess will most likely be in the hundreds of billions of dollars, yet this settlement would let the Wall Street settle up with the state AGs for only $25 billion. Worse yet, most of this money would actually come from the pockets of investors who now own the mortgages in the form of mortgage-backed secuities, not from the perpetrators of fraud, and the rest would come out of the pockets of bank shareholders, rather than from the miscreants who perpetrated the fraud.

When a homeowner defaults on his mortgage, let us all agree that someone has the right to foreclose. The question is whom? In order to protect peasants from expropriation of their land by nobles, English Common Law, back in 1677, established the Statute of Frauds, which requires that all legal contracts involving land be in writing with “wet signatures.” Real property law in most states follows the Statute of Frauds in setting forth legal requirements for a lender to establish before the court that it has the legal right to foreclose and take the property of a borrower.

Herein lies the problem. In its rush to securitize poorly underwritten mortgages and foist them upon unsuspecting investors around the world, the Wall Street bankers decided that they did not have to play by the (legal) rules. They did not create and/or keep the original documents needed to prove to the property courts that a lender has the legal right to foreclose. The bankers didn’t care—because they no longer owned the mortgages; they only serviced the mortgages for investors to whom they had sold the mortgage-backed securities (“MBS”).

“No-doc” loans became “no-doc” foreclosures because servicers found it much cheaper to foreclose with forged documents than to restructure a mortgage, even when the restructuring is in the best interests of the investor who owns the mortgage. Losses on foreclosed properties go to the investors; the bank servicers get paid no matter how severe the losses.

When a few borrowers challenged “no-doc” foreclosures, the bankers responded by “re-creating” the originals—i.e., by forging and backdating signatures and notarizations; and then by committing perjury about their actions before the property courts.  Borrowers (and the media) responded, in turn, by calling attention to the “perjury” and “forgery” problems that Wall Street prefers to peddle as “paperwork” problems.

Why does this matter so much? Because of what economists call “externalities;” what happens to the homeowner who is going into foreclosure affects each and every one of us. If there is one foreclosure in your neighborhood, the value of your house will fall by one percent; if there are five foreclosures in your neighborhood, the value of your house will fall not by five percent but by ten percent; and if there are ten foreclosures in your neighborhood, you might not be able sell your house at any price. Why?

When a delinquent homeowner vacates a house, it is more often than not, immediately vandalized by criminals who steal anything that can be sold for value, such as aluminum siding, copper pipes, and appliances such as heat pumps. This makes it impossible for the lender to sell the foreclosed house without investing tens of thousands in repairs, which they often are unwilling to do. Hence, the property becomes a haven for criminals in search of a private place to do their business.

Therefore, it is critically important that the state AGs, and property courts around the country, maintain the Rule of Law. If a bank has the legal right to foreclose, then it must follow the law by producing in court the legal documents required to back its claim. If the bank cannot produce these documents, then it must take the expensive legal steps to re-establish its legal rights; it cannot be allowed to simply forge copies of the original documents that it failed to maintain. Such forgeries have clouded the titles to the almost ten-million foreclosed properties seized since 2007, and will cloud the titles to the four-million properties that currently are headed into foreclosure. The costs of cleaning up the millions of titles to foreclosed homes, by themselves, will far exceed the proposed $25 billion settlement—by as much as an order of magnitude.

Instead of giving a free pass to the Wall Street banker who created the housing crisis, the state AGs should instead prosecute every instance of fraud, forgery and perjury within their jurisdiction. Flip the little fish into testifying against the big fish; then hit the big fish with jail time. Don’t leave bank shareholders holding the bag for the criminality of the Wall Street bankers who created the financial crisis. Now is the time for accountability, not for another big-bank bailout.

Note: An edited version of this entry appeared as an Op-Ed in The Washington Times on Monday, Jan. 30, 2012.

 

Thoughts on the December Jobs Report

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the jobs report, more formally known as “The Employment Situation,” for December 2011. The headline numbers were 200,000 new jobs and a decline in the unemployment rate to 8.5% from 8.6% in November.

Now, the trend for each headline number is clearly in the right directly: more jobs and fewer unemployed. However, when we look more closely at the report, there are a lot of causes for continuing worry about the health of the U.S. labor market.

First, and most importantly, the size of the labor force continued to decline, down 50,000 workers, even though the population of potential workers rose by 143,000. This caused the number of potential workers “not in the labor force” to rise by 194,000, which is almost equal to the 226,000 decline in the number of unemployed workers. In other words, more and more Americans are simply giving up on trying to even find a job. Until we see the size of the labor force rising on a consistent basis, we will know that the labor market is still is trouble.

Second, 42,200 of the new jobs in December were for “Couriers and Messengers,” as online shopping continued to grow, creating temporary demand for these workers to deliver Christmas presents. This same phenomenon was observed during December in both 2009 and 2010, and was followed by an almost equal decline in the number of “courier and messenger” jobs during January. Look for a loss of more than 40,000 “courier and messenger jobs during January 2012, as well.

Third, 27,900 of the new jobs were in “Retail Trade,” with 13,000 in general merchandise stores, 11,100 in clothing stores, and 8,200 in “food and beverage” stores. Were these also temporary Christmas jobs? It certainly seems likely. January’s jobs report will let us know for sure. In any case, these certainly are not the sort of high-paying jobs on which one can raise a family; more likely, these are minimum-wage, or slightly above, jobs.

Fourth, 22,600 new jobs were in “Health Care.” While these could be doctors, nurses and administrators, it is more likely that they are low-paying, and temporary, positions as nurses assistants and home care workers. Still, a bad job is better than no job.

For all of these reasons, we should not consider the U.S. jobs market to really be on the mend and out of the woods, but at least the trend is in our favor.